UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Really good point about the kicks. Need to rewatch this because that may be the difference. Also Alatang just won't wrestle 

Yanez has been on betway for this Saturday, not saying there hasn’t been wrong dates there before

@foppa I agree with all those points. Just from my perspective, on the tape I watched I don’t actually think Heili gameplans for anyone. His “gameplan” for every fight is the same; stand and trade for two rounds and then wrestle in the third. Like you said, if he wants to win this fight he’s going to have to mix it up, and I just don’t think I can trust him to do so. KR does give his back up when he spins, so maybe Heili could capitalize on that, but I can’t say for a definite fact that he will do this. I think both are pretty durable so this is likely to go the distance. In that case, I have to favor KR because I know he will be attacking all parts of the body and I know I can rely on him to have higher output. Now, I can’t say for a fact his cardio is going to be improved, but I really think he won’t have any issues at 135. Heili can maybe make it competitive, but when he is only going to be headhunting & only really boxing, I think he’s going to seriously fall behind unless he is able to crack KR in each round

Edit: also I just remembered, I think his wrestling upside is a little overrated. Obviously getting outgrappled by vergara is a really bad look, but it’s important to note KR was compromised from body shots & ended on bottom from a failed takedown. He was likely taking his time to recover before he exploded up. And on dwcs he showed some very dynamic getups & used a lot of explosions to get to his feet. Heili has really only had success holding people down for longer than a minute in his first two fights. I think KR should have enough energy to get to his feet should he get takendown

@rah yeah the kicks are the reason I’m on the other side. I remember watching the vergara fight and every time he would pressure KR, KR was blasting kicks to his body in between combinations. I think that’s really going to give Heili issues and also deter him from walking forward

* Edited at 05.16.2024, 5:25 PM ET *

@AyyLmaonnaise 

checking leg kicks and blocking a body or head kick are two completely different things. You're absolutely right that Alateng doesn't check leg kicks well, but Kleydson isn't a high IQ guy who's going to see a weakness on tape and hyperfocus on that. I think he just comes out trying to take Alateng's head off and probably wins round 1. Kleydson can definitely win, but the longer the fight goes on the more it favors Alateng, ESPECIALLY if he makes it to round 3 and starts mixing in the wrestling. This to me is one of those fights that's all going to come down to who wins round 2

* Edited at 05.16.2024, 5:27 PM ET *

It’s not about him hyper focusing on anything, it’s just how he fights. He is a very kick heavy fighter and mixes them up frequently. Heili has not shown me any other tools in his striking arsenal other than boxing, that’s the point I’m trying to make. And as I said in what I wrote to foppa, I don’t really think Heili is exactly the poster boy for fight iq either. As I said, he never changes his gameplan from fight to fight; it’s always stand & trade for 10 min and wrestle round 3. If he had any semblance of fight iq, he would know to mix in wrestling when possible or use it for certain opponents, which he has not. For example, he was able to get guttierrez down with ease, even on one working leg; yet, he didn’t think to wrestle from the jump, when his opponent is notorious for sitting on his back when you get him down? I can’t speak on it as a fact, but I have a good feeling cutting 10 less pounds is going to be better for KR’s cardio, especially when he’s fighting a guy who will let KR choose the pace. Lastly, as I said in my previous message, I do think the wrestling upside is a little overrated. Lets assume he does wrestle from the jump, what threat does he pose on the ground? His top control is quite poor and he’s not very active on top either. The only times he’s held people down for longer than a minute at a time was against a very tired danaa (who can’t grapple in the first place) and ryan Benoit who is a flyweight. As I said in my message to foppa, he didn’t actually get outgrappled by vergara, he got hit with a body shot, was compromised, and ended up on bottom from a failed takedown. Its obviously a very bad look but being compromised and ending on bottom is much different than being outgrappled by a striker. I won’t put much weight into the Bashrat fight since the ufc was setting him up for a loss + basharat is top 15 level, and on dwcs he showed a very explosive, very dynamic getup game. When he got taken down he was immediately creating a scramble to get to his feet; I think he can definitely keep Heili off of him

* Edited at 05.16.2024, 5:35 PM ET *

That's kinda where I'm at. If Heili can mix in some grappling just enough in one of the first 2 rounds, he could end up cruising to a win in the 3rd. 

Ayy brings up a lot of good points though. Heili gets hit a lot, is low volume, and swings for the fences. Despite throwing lots of power shots he's only ever knocked down Croom, which is also his only finish. It's really not hard to picture a reality where Kleydson just pieces him up for 2 rounds, rendering whatever happens in the 3rd all but irrelevant unless Heili can find a late finish. 

Fight Ready does not win fights. 

Kleydson is going to put a serious beating on the poor guy. 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Oh I agree Alateng's IQ is dog **** lol him standing and getting his leg chewed up for 2 rounds by Gutierrez then easily getting takedowns in round 3 makes you face palm. You make some good points though. Guess we'll see what happens Saturday 

I should add I’m a little biased because I rated (and still do rate) KR highly coming off of dwcs. He hasn’t been able to capitalize on the hype, but I think his skills are definitely legit. Now, at 135, his ceiling is much lower, but I still think he can be a solid guy. This is the last fight on his contract and given the weight misses, I imagine he gets his walking papers with a loss. The way I see it, the ufc is giving him a very winnable fight to showcase his skillset. He can definitely lose because he’s an idiot, but I think Heili is too average everywhere to really pose a threat in this matchup 

@Rah123 

youre a smart guy. 

* Edited at 05.16.2024, 6:32 PM ET *

Made this graph showing 10 popular streamers predictions for the fights this weekend.
Last weeks graph and results are on page two
https://www.canva.com/design/DAGEkg07UhM/YNRANmxNQ8grSab9BmaWnQ/edit?utm_content=DAGEkg07UhM&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link2&utm_source=sharebutton

when you are unsure, fade. there are 12 fights for you to choose. 

KR only loses if he gases too early.

* Edited at 05.16.2024, 6:49 PM ET *

I will tell you a secret. It will shock you. 

I don't get every pick right. I sometimes get picks wrong.

But what I am brilliant at is picking spots I am very confident about and hammering good bets 

Ducote vs. Demopoulos
Emily Ducote
ESTA ES JAJAJA

Rodriguez vs. Carnelossi
Piera Rodriguez, DEC
Without overthinking it, Piera winning by decision seems most likely. Better success at the UFC level and should have the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes. Carnelossi is a very tough, physical fighter though, so I wouldn't be shocked if she's able to gut out a win, especially if she's able to find a finish by capitalizing on Rodriguez somehow slowing down in rounds 2 or 3. Piera isn't a world beater by any means. With all of that said, though, I'm more willing to go with the square pick. May be worth throwing a few bucks on Carnelossi ITD, though.

Alatengheili vs. Rodrigues
Alatengheili, DEC
Kleydson has the on-paper advantages, and this is certainly a winnable fight for him. He's more "explosive", probably faster and has the finishing upside (once again, on paper). However, Heili is very tough and has performed well against some tough outs. I'm willing to go out on a limb and trust Heili's toughness and experience, and say that it allows him to grind out a win against an opponent who's no stranger to being on the wrong side of a close decision.

Ducote vs. Demopoulos
Emily Ducote, DEC
Ducote has very solid TDD and is clearly the better striker. Demopoulos isn't known for her wrestling, nor is she known for her striking. Ducote is hittable, and Vanessa's aggression could allow her to take round 1 from her, but it's hard for me to see her losing here unless Demopoulos gets another gift decision. Hoping that isn't the case...

@Rah123 

as long as you bank consistently, then youre doing something right. 

Luana is very good in a clinch.

Barboza doesn't think when he fight.

Sy vs. Tokkos
Oumar Sy, DEC
Don't have much of an opinion this one. Tokkos seems middling and is coming in on just a few days notice. Sy will have a massive reach advantage, more athleticism and just overall, seems to have more upside.

Vidal vs. Gatto
Melissa Gatto, DEC
I understand the argument for betting on Vidal, but personally, I don't really get it. Gatto is the better fighter in virtually every aspect, and despite moving up in weight, doesn't seem like she'll be at that much of a size disadvantage. Vidal is basically a brawler with low kicks and a penchant for attacking leg locks. Idk about yall, but I'd rather put my faith in the chick who didn't get out struck by the dreadful Monserrat Rendon.

Magomedov vs. Alves
Abus Magomedov, TKO, R1
Neither man is particularly trust worthy, but it's especially hard to trust a guy with the mileage, attrition and current form of Alves, let alone one who is an undersized middleweight by comparison to his opponent.

* Edited at 05.17.2024, 2:03 AM ET *